Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey

TOBB President M. Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu assessed the economic developments of 2012 and the expectations from 2013. Stating that the powerful economies of the world have been strained by 2012; that the seemingly strong systems have crumbled, Hisarcıklıoğlu said that the truths of yesterday have become questionable and went on, “In this period of rapid change, nobody is able to look ahead clearly.”

Relating how companies are closer and more connected than ever before thanks to the developments in the fields of internet and logistics, Hisarcıklıoğlu said that in such an environment, focus needs to be on not just our own actions and the possible consequences, but also those of every other actor and every eventuality in it.

- “Europe did not take precautions as quickly as the USA”

Hisarcıklıoğlu pointed out that the USA, with the lessons learned from the great depression of 1929, has for the most part begun to escape the effects of the crisis while Europe, due to its scattered political structure and varying priorities, has not been able to take the necessary steps as fast as the USA and is still struggling to escape the financial stagnation brought on by the crisis.

Stating that the exchange rates in the USA are affecting markets all over the world, Hisarcıklıoğlu said, “Everyone is following the actions of the European Central (ECB) closely. The growth in China, the petroleum/gas flow in Russia and the upheavals in the Middle East are all forming a new reality.”

- “We must be faster than everyone else”

Stating that their reflexes must be quicker than ever, Hisarcıklıoğlu went on:

“Our perspective must not be limited to the local, but encompass the globe. It is impossible to read the game and set it up from a single vantage point. We must always be on the move and act proactively.

As Turkey, as the Turkish business world, we must be faster than everyone else; we must use our reflexes quicker than everyone else. This is because Turkey is right at ground zero of the change sweeping the world.”

Reminding that as economies to our west give out and political upheaval effects the countries to our east and south, Hisarcıklıoğlu said that Turkey is directly affected by the developments in both regions.

Hisarcıklıoğlu stated that Turkey will be able to take full advantage of the situation as long as everyone addresses their own problems and it will, “be the country which ultimately benefits at the end of this process.”

- “There is a lack of political will in the West”

Stating that, despite some positive developments, there are still risks in the global economy, Hisarcıklıoğlu said, “The structural problems which drag the world into crisis still persist. There is a lack of political will aimed towards addressing this issue. When the reasons are not addressed the results remain the same.”

Reporting that the fact that the problematic countries in Europe still have not applied for rescue funds; the fiscal policy (cliff) in the USA and the uncertainties regarding the formation of a bank union in the Euro zone still remain as the main risk factors, Hisarcıklıoğlu stated that they expect the “fiscal cliff” problem in the USA to be solved through negotiations and that the present situation in Europe to not deteriorate further: as a result global growth in 2012 will be higher.

- TOBB’s base scenario for 2013

Stating that TOBB’s base scenario is based on the improvements to the global financial environment, the stability of present oil prices and a lack of increasing effect from the political tension of neighboring countries, Hisarcıklıoğlu said, “In this situation, we expect 2013 to be a better year than 2012 in regards to exports and inflation.”

- “Even 3% growth is questionable”

Stating that the deceleration seen in commerce is also seen in the industrial sector, Hisarcıklıoğlu emphasized that the data from both the industrial production index and production industry capacity usage ratios are pointing to deceleration and said, “This shows that the 2012 economic growth projections may not be achieved and that even 3% growth is questionable.”

Saying that the slowing down of the economy is adversely affecting the cash flow in the market, Hisarcıklıoğlu reported that a noticeable increase in faulty credit and dishonored checks has been observed.

- “Current deficit will remain a source of worry”

Relating how the removal of prison sentences from dishonored checks without putting a control mechanism in its place has decreased the number of checks used as well as an increase in the number of dishonored checks, Hisarcıklıoğlu said:

“As a result of the loss of speed in growth, the current account deficit has begun to decrease. This is a good development for stability. However we still have a large deficit. In addition, even though our growth speed has fallen to below half, our deficit has not followed suit and will remain a source of worry.

- “Let’s not forget the South Korea example”

Stating that 2013, being an election year, presents opportunities regarding structural reforms in the tax and employment market, Hisarcıklıoğlu said, “If economy related subjects are brought to the fore, these can be completed. This way, we can put up a stronger institutional structure for the years to come.

In order to attain South Korea’s performance we must continue to undertake reforms to improve the business and investment environment. We are in need of improvements in the fields of industry, energy, logistics, education and law.”

Hisarcıklıoğlu stated that adaptive, quick learning and reacting entrepreneurs will be the driving force to make Turkey a strong country.
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